Tuesday, April 5, 2011

"Moneyball"ing the L'Pool? Ask the Spaniard



" Billy ( Beane ) intended to rip away from the scouts the power to decide who would be a pro baseball player and who would not, and Paul ( DePodesta ) was his weapon for doing it. "
                
Philosophy of Oakland A's GM Billy Beane portrayed in Michael Lewis' Moneyball



Luis Suárez and Andy Carroll should thank Rafael Benítez. 


I think they really should.



One of Benítez's signings gave Liverpool ample stack of paper-notes in January, 2011.

Lets be honest, £ 50,000,000 is way more than just cash. It's quite a lot.

I don't know who scripted Fernando Torres' departure (You can blame H&G, Christian Purslow, Roy Hodgson or even, Benítez), but it sure scripted the arrival of two club record signings.

So, thank Torres then? No.

Thank Benítez.


I don't know the Spaniard. And I don't claim to know his philosophy either. 


I've never met the Spaniard nor would I say no to a chess showdown versus the chess playing coach.


But why thank him?


Because, Mr. Benítez's signing of 2007, El Niño, paved way to two new forwards with an average age of 23.


Add to that, one of them is single-handedly conjured a win against Manchester United.


So, win-win-win, innit?


Fernando: El Rojiblanco to El Red to Traitor


Before, he arrived at Liverpool in 2007, Torres was a prolific scorer. 


But his mercurial dash into the world's elite was campaigned in the season of 2007-08. 



Record: The Good, The Best, & The Anon




33 in 46, not bad?


Post his debut season, an injury ravaged second but still notching close to a goal in two games. Not bad either.


In the calamitous season, he still managed 22 in 32 appearances in all competitions.


Post WC '10, injuries, more time on the sidelines, & with Roy Hodgson, Torres went from one super-star phase to one 'I'll let you know when I want to play'.


It's quite envious to say, "It's all Rafa's fault."


When it was clear that service to the younger Spaniard was lacking.


So, when he did leave, he had amassed 81 strikes in 142 appearances in all competitions.


That's a .57 goal per game ratio. 


Great, innit?


But was it that great in financial terms?


Was Torres a huge success?


Success/Bargain/Flop: How would you measure it?


How do you do it really?


Is it this way?


Quite simple, no?


Not that simple. 


There are a few pointers missing.


1) Torres' services weren't available throughout the season


In the 2008-09 season, Torres was an absentee for most of the season (24 league appearances, 14 Cup competition appearances).


In April, 2010 he underwent a surgery to save his World Cup participation.


So the striker was on pay-roll while being injured.


2) Inflation



Biggest mirage creator of all. What costed $1 a ten years ago wouldn't be the same today.

So, the £22.8 million Liverpool splashed out in 2007 isn't of the same value today.

So with wages & inflation involved the picture would look like this. Or sorta?


But on applying inflation correction to transfer fees, it occurred to me, that wages would also be affected by inflation.

After all, money changes in every way, even if it's only relatively.

So, another corrected view could be?


But there's more: Signing-on fees. *

And some more: The money Liverpool splurged out for the medical surgeries and recuperation period when Torres returned injured from international duty along with bonuses. **

( * & ** --> Unknown, or rather undisclosed )

With all other possibilities included it would be safe to say that Torres' transfer was someway between profit & break-even ( Not an all out profit ).

Hence, he was worth the £50m.

Or was he more?

The Price: Rafa vs. Purslow

Rafa Benítez made it known to the world that Torres could have been sold at £70 million.

It would have meant that along with Suarez and Carroll, we would have had another signing.

A bonus, that would should have aided our cause considering our problems on the wing and left back areas.

But what intrigues me more is, that Rafa saying that "It is big money but could [have been] even better." 

So, who made that £20m (or more) difference?

Well, that man is Christian Purslow.


Unos, dos, y £50m?!: Rafa, Purslow & Torres


The damage was done when Mr. Purslow added the £50m buyout clause into Torres' contract.

Otherwise else, we would have been smarting on a trio of signings.

Why Moneyball, then?

It just shows that with the right kind of service coupled with vision and talent, you can strike super-stars.

Torres was a good striker, Rafa made him elite.

The stats show that even an injured Torres scored more under Rafa.

Yes, for every Torres bought to the club, there was a Bellamy and Crouch sold.

But with the return of £50m or more in four years of time, that's quite a magnanimous achievement. ( Considering Torres top-charted to the slot of the fourth highest record transfer in the world )

It doesn't mean Liverpool should be a selling club or sell their stars for £50m after four years of loyalty.

What it means, is to acquire future diamonds of football to ascend the f**king perch.

It's what FSG would be/could be/should be looking into.

It's started with Luis & Andy, lets hope it continues through to summer.


More of the same, PLEASE!



Note: Dispassionate reading is a must.

Sidenote: Congratulations! If you have reached till here without getting irked even at the mention of Torres ( 16 times ), you read through this dispassionately!

Serious small note: Facts and figures were sourced, calculations have been re-checked. I flunked in Math once ( 1st semester, B.Tech ), not twice.